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The ‘dreaded’ penalty shootout is a common feature of knockout football tournaments and as every commentator in every shootout will tell you, going out on penalties is a ‘terrible way to lose’.

Right as they may be, there’s a certain science and pattern to penalty shootouts that not everyone is aware of, and knowing the numbers can help you turn a profit if you’re sick enough to bet in-play on football’s equivalent of Russian Roulette.

Penalties by Numbers

Where there’s a significant sample size of something, there’ll always be nerds to analyse the data and present it in a nice neat fashion for less clever people to understand, and that’s exactly what several research groups have done over the years*.

An overwhelming feature of the hand-waving analysis of penalty kicks by pundits and journalists comes down to simple cognitive bias. If a penalty is saved, it’s invariably described as a poor kick. Similarly if the ball hits the back of the net, the kicker is described as cool and calm under pressure. This is of course, rubbish, and variance or ‘luck’ to the great un-hosed is the real factor at work here.

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